SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 47.25%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 26.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.88%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Akhmat Grozny in this match.
| Result | ||
| Akhmat Grozny | Draw | Sochi |
47.25% ( -0.22) | 26.27% ( 0.04) | 26.48% ( 0.17) |
| Both teams to score 49.35% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.41% ( -0.05) | 54.59% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.07% ( -0.04) | 75.93% ( 0.04) |
| Akhmat Grozny Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.9% ( -0.12) | 23.1% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.05% ( -0.18) | 56.95% ( 0.17) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.18% ( 0.12) | 35.82% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.4% ( 0.12) | 72.6% ( -0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Akhmat Grozny | Draw | Sochi |
| 1-0 @ 12.12% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.12% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 8.88% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 4.46% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 4.34% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.29% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.63% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.59% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.82% Total : 47.25% | 1-1 @ 12.44% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.27% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.68% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.86% Total : 26.26% | 0-1 @ 8.5% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.39% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 4.36% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 2.19% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.96% Total : 26.48% |
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