SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Nizhny Novgorod | 6 | -4 | 5 |
| 14 | Fakel | 6 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Ural Yekaterinburg | 6 | -10 | 1 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zenit St Petersburg | 6 | 11 | 14 |
| 2 | Spartak Moscow | 6 | 10 | 13 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 6 | 9 | 13 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 47.75%. A win for Fakel had a probability of 27.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.35%) and 0-2 (8.44%). The likeliest Fakel win was 1-0 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fakel | Draw | Spartak Moscow |
27.02% ( 0.26) | 25.23% ( 0.02) | 47.75% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 52.89% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.83% ( 0.09) | 50.17% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.87% ( 0.08) | 72.13% ( -0.08) |
| Fakel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.97% ( 0.25) | 33.02% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.39% ( 0.28) | 69.61% ( -0.28) |
| Spartak Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.97% ( -0.08) | 21.03% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.18% ( -0.13) | 53.82% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fakel | Draw | Spartak Moscow |
| 1-0 @ 7.69% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 6.65% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 4.26% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.47% Total : 27.02% | 1-1 @ 11.99% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.95% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.23% | 0-1 @ 10.82% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 9.35% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 8.44% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 4.86% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 4.39% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 2.69% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.9% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.71% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.53% Total : 47.74% |
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