Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Krylia Sovetov win with a probability of 54.32%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 21.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Krylia Sovetov win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.9%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.41%), while for a Fakel win it was 0-1 (6.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.
-0.02) 
0.01) 
