Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 48.37%. A win for Ural Yekaterinburg had a probability of 26.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.41%) and 0-2 (8.53%). The likeliest Ural Yekaterinburg win was 1-0 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.