Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 54.4%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Sochi had a probability of 21.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.22%), while for a Sochi win it was 0-1 (6.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.

Result
Spartak Moscow	Draw	Sochi
54.4% ( 0.02)	23.63% ( 0.01)	21.97% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 52.63% (

-0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.05% (

-0.08)

47.95% (

0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.88% (

-0.07)

70.12% (

0.08)

Spartak Moscow Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.48% (

-0.02)

17.52% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.97% (

-0.04)

48.03% (

0.04)

Sochi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.81% (

-0.07)

36.19% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.02% (

-0.08)

72.98% (

0.08)

Score Analysis

Spartak Moscow 54.39%

Sochi 21.97%

Draw 23.62%

Spartak Moscow	Draw	Sochi
1-0 @ 11.04% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.78% ( -0) 2-0 @ 9.62% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.68% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.59% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.47% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.43% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.26% ( -0) Other @ 3.65% Total : 54.39%	1-1 @ 11.22% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.34% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.97% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.62%	0-1 @ 6.44% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.7% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.27% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.11% ( -0) Other @ 1.83% Total : 21.97%