SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Krylia Sovetov win with a probability of 48.7%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 27.2% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Krylia Sovetov win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.48%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 1-2 (6.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Krylia Sovetov | Draw | Orenburg |
48.7% ( 0.29) | 24.1% ( -0.14) | 27.2% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 56.72% ( 0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.8% ( 0.5) | 45.2% ( -0.49) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.46% ( 0.48) | 67.54% ( -0.47) |
| Krylia Sovetov Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.35% ( 0.31) | 18.66% ( -0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 50.02% ( 0.52) | 49.98% ( -0.51) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.73% ( 0.14) | 30.27% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.56% ( 0.17) | 66.44% ( -0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Krylia Sovetov | Draw | Orenburg |
| 2-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.48% ( -0.11)2-0 @ 7.96% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.32% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 4.46% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 2.24% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.87% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.34% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.35% Total : 48.7% | 1-1 @ 11.33% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.68% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 5.65% ( -0.12)3-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.1% | 1-2 @ 6.77% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 6.75% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 4.03% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 2.7% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.26% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.08% Total : 27.2% |
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