SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Krylia Sovetov win with a probability of 41.77%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 31.24% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Krylia Sovetov win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (9.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Krylia Sovetov would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Krylia Sovetov | Draw | Sochi |
41.77% ( 0.98) | 26.99% ( -0.29) | 31.24% ( -0.69) |
| Both teams to score 49.94% ( 0.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.85% ( 0.91) | 55.15% ( -0.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.61% ( 0.75) | 76.4% ( -0.74) |
| Krylia Sovetov Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.95% ( 0.95) | 26.05% ( -0.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.91% ( 1.26) | 61.09% ( -1.25) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.54% ( -0.01) | 32.47% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.01% ( -0.02) | 68.99% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Krylia Sovetov | Draw | Sochi |
| 1-0 @ 11.37% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 8.61% ( 0.16)2-0 @ 7.65% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 3.86% ( 0.17)3-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 2.17% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.22% Total : 41.76% | 1-1 @ 12.79% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 8.46% ( -0.3)2-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.9% Total : 26.99% | 0-1 @ 9.52% ( -0.34) 1-2 @ 7.2% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 5.35% ( -0.2)1-3 @ 2.7% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.65% Total : 31.24% |
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