SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 7 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Dynamo Moscow | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Rostov | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Sochi | 7 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 7 | -1 | 9 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 45.97%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 28.77% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (7.93%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Krasnodar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Krasnodar | Draw | Sochi |
45.97% ( 1.14) | 25.25% ( -0.24) | 28.77% ( -0.9) |
| Both teams to score 54.11% ( 0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.83% ( 0.56) | 49.17% ( -0.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.76% ( 0.5) | 71.24% ( -0.5) |
| FC Krasnodar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.6% ( 0.75) | 21.4% ( -0.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.61% ( 1.14) | 54.39% ( -1.14) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.84% ( -0.36) | 31.16% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.5% ( -0.43) | 67.49% ( 0.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Krasnodar | Draw | Sochi |
| 1-0 @ 10.28% 2-1 @ 9.24% ( 0.12)2-0 @ 7.93% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 4.75% ( 0.16)3-0 @ 4.07% ( 0.18)3-2 @ 2.77% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 1.83% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.1)4-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.46% Total : 45.97% | 1-1 @ 11.98% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 6.67% ( -0.15)2-2 @ 5.39% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.24% | 0-1 @ 7.77% ( -0.26) 1-2 @ 6.99% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 4.53% ( -0.2)1-3 @ 2.72% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.91% Total : 28.77% |
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