SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Sochi | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Dynamo Moscow | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Orenburg | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Nizhny Novgorod | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 13 | Fakel | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 63.26%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 14.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.53%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.33%), while for a Nizhny Novgorod win it was 0-1 (5.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochi would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sochi | Draw | Nizhny Novgorod |
63.26% ( 0.27) | 21.91% ( -0.21) | 14.82% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 45.06% ( 0.47) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.62% ( 0.7) | 51.38% ( -0.7) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.8% ( 0.61) | 73.2% ( -0.61) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.34% ( 0.33) | 15.66% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.31% ( 0.6) | 44.69% ( -0.6) |
| Nizhny Novgorod Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.42% ( 0.35) | 46.57% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.83% ( 0.26) | 82.16% ( -0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sochi | Draw | Nizhny Novgorod |
| 1-0 @ 13.52% ( -0.23) 2-0 @ 12.53% ( -0.07)2-1 @ 9.58% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 7.75% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 5.92% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 3.59% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 2.75% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.06)5-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 1.02% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.96% Total : 63.26% | 1-1 @ 10.33% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 7.29% ( -0.21)2-2 @ 3.66% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.63% Total : 21.91% | 0-1 @ 5.57% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 3.95% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.24% Total : 14.82% |
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