Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dynamo Moscow win with a probability of 43.89%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 28.18% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dynamo Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.6%) and 2-1 (8.51%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
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