SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 39.66%. A win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 35% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.63%) and 0-2 (6.44%). The likeliest Spartak Moscow win was 1-0 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spartak Moscow | Draw | Zenit St Petersburg |
35% ( 0.93) | 25.34% ( 0.43) | 39.66% ( -1.36) |
| Both teams to score 56.35% ( -1.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.62% ( -1.79) | 47.38% ( 1.79) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.4% ( -1.68) | 69.6% ( 1.68) |
| Spartak Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.81% ( -0.3) | 26.19% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.71% ( -0.4) | 61.29% ( 0.4) |
| Zenit St Petersburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.35% ( -1.46) | 23.65% ( 1.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.26% ( -2.15) | 57.74% ( 2.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spartak Moscow | Draw | Zenit St Petersburg |
| 1-0 @ 8.3% ( 0.54) 2-1 @ 8.01% ( 0.12)2-0 @ 5.56% ( 0.31)3-1 @ 3.58% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.58% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 2.48% ( 0.12)4-1 @ 1.2% ( -0)Other @ 3.3% Total : 35% | 1-1 @ 11.96% ( 0.28) 0-0 @ 6.19% ( 0.45)2-2 @ 5.78% ( -0.17)3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.33% | 0-1 @ 8.93% ( 0.28) 1-2 @ 8.63% ( -0.17)0-2 @ 6.44% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 4.15% ( -0.27)0-3 @ 3.1% ( -0.17)2-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.21)1-4 @ 1.5% ( -0.17)0-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.12)2-4 @ 1% ( -0.12)Other @ 2.03% Total : 39.66% |
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