Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 50.28%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Ural Yekaterinburg had a probability of 24.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.42%) and 1-2 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.07%), while for a Ural Yekaterinburg win it was 1-0 (7.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Krasnodar would win this match.
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