SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dundee win with a probability of 49.93%. A win for Ayr United had a probability of 26.18% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dundee win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.58%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Ayr United win was 1-2 (6.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Dundee would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Dundee | Draw | Ayr United |
49.93% ( -3.03) | 23.89% ( 0.8) | 26.18% ( 2.23) |
| Both teams to score 56.54% ( -0.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.97% ( -1.55) | 45.03% ( 1.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.62% ( -1.51) | 67.38% ( 1.5) |
| Dundee Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.89% ( -1.7) | 18.1% ( 1.69) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.95% ( -2.98) | 49.05% ( 2.98) |
| Ayr United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.04% ( 0.98) | 30.96% ( -0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.74% ( 1.13) | 67.26% ( -1.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Dundee | Draw | Ayr United |
| 2-1 @ 9.6% ( -0.17) 1-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 8.19% ( -0.38)3-1 @ 5.47% ( -0.42)3-0 @ 4.66% ( -0.49)3-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.15)4-1 @ 2.34% ( -0.32)4-0 @ 1.99% ( -0.34)4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.15)Other @ 3.54% Total : 49.93% | 1-1 @ 11.23% ( 0.42) 2-2 @ 5.63% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 5.61% ( 0.36)3-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.89% | 1-2 @ 6.59% ( 0.42) 0-1 @ 6.57% ( 0.59)0-2 @ 3.85% ( 0.44)1-3 @ 2.57% ( 0.23)2-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.21)Other @ 2.89% Total : 26.18% |
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