SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Queen's Park | 5 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Greenock Morton | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| 5 | Dundee | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ayr United | 5 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 | Partick Thistle | 5 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Queen's Park | 5 | 2 | 10 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greenock Morton win with a probability of 41.53%. A win for Ayr United had a probability of 30.69% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greenock Morton win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Ayr United win was 0-1 (10.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Greenock Morton | Draw | Ayr United |
41.53% ( -0.89) | 27.78% ( -0.08) | 30.69% ( 0.98) |
| Both teams to score 47.41% ( 0.65) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.74% ( 0.62) | 58.26% ( -0.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.11% ( 0.48) | 78.9% ( -0.48) |
| Greenock Morton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.37% ( -0.19) | 27.63% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.83% ( -0.25) | 63.17% ( 0.25) |
| Ayr United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.51% ( 1.07) | 34.49% ( -1.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.79% ( 1.12) | 71.21% ( -1.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Greenock Morton | Draw | Ayr United |
| 1-0 @ 12.25% ( -0.36) 2-1 @ 8.39% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 7.88% ( -0.27)3-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 3.38% ( -0.14)3-2 @ 1.92% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.16% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.09% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.85% Total : 41.52% | 1-1 @ 13.04% 0-0 @ 9.53% ( -0.23)2-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.78% | 0-1 @ 10.14% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.95% ( 0.2)0-2 @ 5.4% ( 0.18)1-3 @ 2.46% ( 0.14)0-3 @ 1.92% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.24% Total : 30.69% |
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