Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 36.11%. A win for Alcorcon had a probability of 33.96% and a draw had a probability of 29.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.23%) and 0-2 (7.02%). The likeliest Alcorcon win was 1-0 (12.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
