Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 38.63%. A win for Elche had a probability of 32.07% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.7%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Elche win was 0-1 (11.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burgos would win this match.
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