Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cartagena win with a probability of 34.82%. A win for Ponferradina had a probability of 33.15% and a draw had a probability of 32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cartagena win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.97%) and 2-1 (6.44%). The likeliest Ponferradina win was 0-1 (14.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (15.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.
