Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Granada win with a probability of 64.41%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Ponferradina had a probability of 13.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Granada win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.34%) and 2-1 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.19%), while for a Ponferradina win it was 0-1 (5.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.
-0.2) 
0.05) 
