Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 44.41%. A win for Leganes had a probability of 27.98% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.63%) and 2-1 (8.63%). The likeliest Leganes win was 0-1 (9.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
-0.18) 
0.01) 
