Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugo win with a probability of 50.99%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Fuenlabrada had a probability of 22.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.06%) and 2-1 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Fuenlabrada win it was 0-1 (8.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.