Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 62.07%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Amorebieta had a probability of 15.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.85%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.43%), while for an Amorebieta win it was 0-1 (5.59%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Valladolid would win this match.