Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugo win with a probability of 46.62%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Amorebieta had a probability of 25.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.32%) and 2-1 (8.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.81%), while for an Amorebieta win it was 0-1 (9.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
