SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 58.8%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Amorebieta had a probability of 17.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.35%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.02%), while for an Amorebieta win it was 0-1 (6.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Valladolid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Valladolid | Draw | Amorebieta |
58.8% ( 0.51) | 23.26% ( 0.12) | 17.94% ( -0.62) |
| Both teams to score 47.47% ( -1.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.4% ( -1.34) | 51.6% ( 1.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.61% ( -1.17) | 73.39% ( 1.17) |
| Real Valladolid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.74% ( -0.3) | 17.26% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.42% ( -0.53) | 47.58% ( 0.53) |
| Amorebieta Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.37% ( -1.52) | 42.63% ( 1.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.03% ( -1.32) | 78.97% ( 1.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Valladolid | Draw | Amorebieta |
| 1-0 @ 12.92% ( 0.55) 2-0 @ 11.35% ( 0.38)2-1 @ 9.68% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 6.65% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 5.67% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 2.92% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 2.49% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.15)4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.08)5-0 @ 1.03% ( 0)Other @ 2.61% Total : 58.79% | 1-1 @ 11.02% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.36% ( 0.39)2-2 @ 4.13% ( -0.21)Other @ 0.76% Total : 23.26% | 0-1 @ 6.27% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 4.7% ( -0.19)0-2 @ 2.68% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.11)Other @ 1.79% Total : 17.94% |
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