Claudio Ranieri has lost just four of 18 previous matches against Torino - and none since 1995. His Cagliari side could catch the Turin club out again, as Toro's lack of potency has cost them on several occasions, while their hosts have actually scored more goals in Serie A and can be a formidable force on Sardinian soil.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 40.07%. A win for Torino had a probability of 31.45% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.07%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Torino win was 0-1 (10.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
0.03) 
-0.06) 
