With Genoa averaging fewer than a goal per game so far - and lagging behind in the possession stats - some sharp finishing from one of Roma's top-notch forwards could prove fatal to the Grifone's hopes of a first home win. Their most recent victory at Marassi was in the Coppa Italia early last month, and that wait will surely go on.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 40.29%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 30.66% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.94%) and 1-2 (7.92%). The likeliest Genoa win was 1-0 (11.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
0.52) 
-0.6) 
