We said: Genoa 1-1 Spezia
Neither side can afford to drop any points against their relegation rivals, with a tight contest expected on Sunday afternoon.
Without much in the way to separate the two sides, expect the shares to be spoiled in this crucial relegation clash.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 45.49%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 28.97% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
