Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ascoli win with a probability of 39.72%. A win for Parma had a probability of 31.68% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ascoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.01%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (10.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
-0.78) 
0.31) 
