Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 44.45%. A win for Parma had a probability of 29.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bari would win this match.
-0.03) 
0.04) 
