Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 55.3%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for SPAL had a probability of 20.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.12%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.3%), while for a SPAL win it was 0-1 (6.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
-0.05) 
0.05) 
