Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 47%. A win for Benevento had a probability of 27% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.66%). The likeliest Benevento win was 0-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.
-0.08) 
0.03) 
