Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 40.48%. A win for Venezia had a probability of 30.67% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8%) and 2-0 (7.93%). The likeliest Venezia win was 0-1 (11.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Perugia would win this match.
-0.26) 
0.04) 
