Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benevento win with a probability of 53.71%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Perugia had a probability of 20.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benevento win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.74%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Perugia win it was 0-1 (7.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.
1) 
-1.01) 
