Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 46.64%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Perugia had a probability of 26.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.17%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.74%), while for a Perugia win it was 0-1 (9.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.
0.52) 
-0.21) 
