SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 46.64%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Perugia had a probability of 26.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.17%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.74%), while for a Perugia win it was 0-1 (9.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cagliari | Draw | Perugia |
46.64% ( 0.52) | 27.24% ( -0.21) | 26.12% ( -0.32) |
| Both teams to score 46.34% ( 0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.66% ( 0.52) | 58.34% ( -0.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.04% ( 0.41) | 78.95% ( -0.41) |
| Cagliari Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.97% ( 0.49) | 25.03% ( -0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 40.3% ( 0.67) | 59.7% ( -0.68) |
| Perugia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.81% ( 0.01) | 38.18% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 25.05% ( 0.01) | 74.95% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cagliari | Draw | Perugia |
| 1-0 @ 13.23% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 9.17% ( 0.08)2-1 @ 8.83% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 4.23% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 4.08% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 1.96% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.47% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.41% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.26% Total : 46.63% | 1-1 @ 12.74% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 9.56% ( -0.19)2-2 @ 4.25% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.69% Total : 27.23% | 0-1 @ 9.2% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 6.14% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 4.43% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.6% Total : 26.12% |
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