Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 41.21%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 31.17% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest SPAL win was 0-1 (10.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
0.03) 
-0.04) 
