Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cittadella win with a probability of 41.52%. A win for Benevento had a probability of 29.99% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cittadella win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Benevento win was 0-1 (10.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cittadella would win this match.
-0.8) 
0.17) 
