Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benevento win with a probability of 40.62%. A win for Parma had a probability of 32.35% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benevento win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
-0.71) 
0.22) 
