Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 42.09%. A win for Cittadella had a probability of 31.17% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest Cittadella win was 0-1 (9.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SPAL would win this match.
-0.5) 
0.61) 
