Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 37.18%. A win for Brescia had a probability of 34.62% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.84%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Brescia win was 1-0 (11.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genoa would win this match.
0.49) 
-0.14) 
