Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 48.77%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 25.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.95%). The likeliest SPAL win was 0-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.
-0.05) 
0.02) 
