Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 45.32%. A win for Modena had a probability of 28.73% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.09%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Modena win was 0-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.
-0) 
0) 
