Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 40.23%. A win for Bari had a probability of 31.57% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.17%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Bari win was 0-1 (10.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.

Result
SPAL	Draw	Bari
40.23% ( 0.09)	28.2% ( -0.02)	31.57% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 46.55% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.51% (

0.05)

59.48% (

-0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.16% (

0.04)

79.84% (

-0.04)

SPAL Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.06% (

0.07)

28.93% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.18% (

0.09)

64.82% (

-0.09)

Bari Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.5% (

-0.02)

34.49% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.79% (

-0.03)

71.21% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

SPAL 40.23%

Bari 31.56%

Draw 28.19%

SPAL	Draw	Bari
1-0 @ 12.37% 2-1 @ 8.17% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.68% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.17% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.8% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 0.98% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.64% Total : 40.23%	1-1 @ 13.17% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.98% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.35% ( 0) Other @ 0.69% Total : 28.19%	0-1 @ 10.62% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.01% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.65% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.49% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.54% Other @ 2.24% Total : 31.56%