Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 40.23%. A win for Bari had a probability of 31.57% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.17%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Bari win was 0-1 (10.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
0.09) 
-0.02) 
