Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 43.65%. A win for Sudtirol had a probability of 29.8% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Sudtirol win was 0-1 (8.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
-0.16) 
0.11) 
