Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 37.72%. A win for Venezia had a probability of 35.34% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.19%) and 0-2 (6.66%). The likeliest Venezia win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Frosinone would win this match.
0.16) 
-0.03) 
