Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 62.2%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Lugano had a probability of 18.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.7%) and 1-0 (7.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.8%), while for a Lugano win it was 1-2 (4.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.
