Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 52.69%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 25.4% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.46%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (6.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.
