SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luzern win with a probability of 45.65%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 30.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luzern win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.77%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (7.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Luzern would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Luzern | Draw | Lugano |
45.65% ( 1.01) | 23.49% ( -0.16) | 30.85% ( -0.85) |
| Both teams to score 61.39% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.84% ( 0.36) | 40.15% ( -0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.47% ( 0.37) | 62.52% ( -0.37) |
| Luzern Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.1% ( 0.55) | 17.89% ( -0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.31% ( 0.94) | 48.69% ( -0.94) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.78% ( -0.35) | 25.22% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.04% ( -0.48) | 59.96% ( 0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| Luzern | Draw | Lugano |
| 2-1 @ 9.2% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 7.77% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6.68% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 5.28% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 3.83% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 3.64% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 2.27% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.09)4-2 @ 1.56% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.78% Total : 45.65% | 1-1 @ 10.69% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 6.34% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.51% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.67% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.48% | 1-2 @ 7.37% ( -0.14) 0-1 @ 6.22% ( -0.17)0-2 @ 4.28% ( -0.16)1-3 @ 3.38% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 2.91% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 1% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.55% Total : 30.85% |
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