SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Sion | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 6 | Lugano | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Basel | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Basel | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | Luzern | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | FC Winterthur | 4 | -6 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luzern win with a probability of 38.39%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 36.42% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luzern win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.48%) and 0-2 (6.12%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-0 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Luzern would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lugano | Draw | Luzern |
36.42% ( 0.61) | 25.19% ( 0.16) | 38.39% ( -0.77) |
| Both teams to score 57.06% ( -0.52) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.45% ( -0.69) | 46.55% ( 0.69) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.17% ( -0.65) | 68.82% ( 0.65) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75% ( 0.02) | 24.99% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.35% ( 0.03) | 59.65% ( -0.03) |
| Luzern Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.07% ( -0.71) | 23.93% ( 0.71) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.85% ( -1.03) | 58.15% ( 1.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lugano | Draw | Luzern |
| 1-0 @ 8.29% ( 0.24) 2-1 @ 8.22% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 5.75% ( 0.17)3-1 @ 3.8% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.72% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 2.66% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.8% Total : 36.42% | 1-1 @ 11.85% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 5.98% ( 0.17)2-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.18% | 0-1 @ 8.55% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 8.48% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 6.12% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 4.04% ( -0.13)0-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 1.45% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 1.04% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 1% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.99% Total : 38.39% |
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