Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luzern win with a probability of 41.18%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 33.82% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luzern win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.8%) and 2-0 (6.6%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
