SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 63.29%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Braga had a probability of 16.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.55%), while for a Braga win it was 0-1 (4.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Braga |
63.29% ( 0) | 20.29% ( 0.14) | 16.42% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 53.83% ( -0.85) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.44% ( -0.96) | 41.56% ( 0.95) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.04% ( -0.97) | 63.96% ( 0.97) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.5% ( -0.29) | 12.5% ( 0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.5% ( -0.6) | 38.5% ( 0.6) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.52% ( -0.77) | 38.48% ( 0.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.77% ( -0.74) | 75.23% ( 0.74) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Braga |
| 2-0 @ 10.4% ( 0.22) 1-0 @ 10% ( 0.31)2-1 @ 9.93% ( 0)3-0 @ 7.21% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 6.88% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 3.75% ( -0)4-1 @ 3.58% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.11)4-2 @ 1.71% ( -0.07)5-0 @ 1.56% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.49% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.49% Total : 63.28% | 1-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 4.81% ( 0.2)2-2 @ 4.74% ( -0.1)3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.14% Total : 20.29% | 0-1 @ 4.59% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 4.56% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 2.19% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.11% Total : 16.42% |
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