Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inhulets win with a probability of 37.43%. A win for Mariupol had a probability of 35.34% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inhulets win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Mariupol win was 0-1 (10.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Inhulets would win this match.
